(WKYT)Doug wants to know: “Will beef prices ever go down? What caused the prices to go up so drastically?”
The short answer is yes — but not anytime soon.
The cattle cycle
Fluctuations in the U.S. cattle supply are normal. There is a natural cycle that producers and economists track. But the current drop in the number of cattle has allowed demand to far outpace supply.
The USDA says the U.S. cattle herd peaked in 2019 at 94.7 million head. By January 2025, that number had dropped 8% to 86.7 million head.
Why supply dropped
Several factors have contributed to the decline, but drought has been the largest driver.
A 2024 report from Investigate Midwest found that “USDA pastureland data shows that grazable Nebraska pastureland shrunk by a third since 2019 during the month of June.”
When grazing land dries up, farmers face two primary options: pay to have feed and water delivered — increasing their costs — or sell their cattle. Those sales further reduce supply because the animals are slaughtered rather than bred to raise new cattle.
Other contributing factors include:
- ICE raids on meatpacking plants that reduced production
- Tariffs on Brazilian beef imports
- A restriction on cattle imports from Mexico aimed at stopping the spread of the screwworm
Demand hasn’t slowed
As supply has decreased, demand for beef has not. That gap has driven a steady rise in prices.
Relief could take years
Replenishing the nation’s beef herds is a slow process. Cows take nine months to gestate, and a calf can take about a year and a half to reach slaughter weight.
The USDA estimates wholesale beef prices will increase by 9.4% in 2026.
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