Monday Covid Update

From the LCDHD Sunday evening:

Statewide Testing Positivity Rate: 8.95%.

Deaths: We regret we must report 1 new death today. We have experienced a total of 124 deaths resulting in a 1.5% mortality rate (about 1 in 67) among known cases. This compares with a 1.08% mortality rate at the state level, and a 2% morality rate at the national level. Our hearts and prayers go out to all the families and friends who have lost loved ones.

Hospitalizations: We presently have 71 cases* in the hospital. This is 6 more than yesterday. We have had a total of 520 hospitalizations resulting in a 6.29% hospitalization rate (about 1 in 16) among known cases. The state hospitalization rate is 5.73%. The latest state data shows that 86% of ICU beds and an unreported % of ventilator capacity are being utilized. (*This number is an estimation. Due to the high numbers, we only check with the hospitals on Fridays now. Therefore, the best time to see the most accurate hospital data will be in the Saturday News Brief.)

Total (Cumulative) Cases: The Lake Cumberland District has experienced a total of 8,265 cases since the onset of the outbreak. This means that 3.96% of our total population have been a confirmed case. However, we do not know how many additional people may have had COVID-19 and were either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and never tested.

Released (Not contagious) Cases: We released 132 cases today from isolation. Released cases include: Adair: 11; Casey: 7; Clinton: 3; Cumberland: 2; Green: 11; McCreary: 19; Pulaski: 41; Russell: 12; Taylor: 22; and, Wayne: 4. In all, we have released 86.4% of our total cases.

Active (Current) Cases: We released 26 more cases today than we added new cases. Taking all things into account, this leaves us with 997 active cases in our district across all 10 of our district’s 10 counties. On 11/25/2020 we were at our peak number of active cases, 1150.

Where Did Cases Visit Prior to Isolation: The most common places cases visited prior to isolation are (in descending order): Long-term Care/Residential Facilities, Businesses, Schools, and Family. Of our active cases, 10% can not be tied back to another known case (community-spread cases).

New Cases: We report that our total case count has increased by 107 today: Adair: 5; Casey: 10; Cumberland: 3; Green: 3; McCreary: 18; Pulaski: 51; Russell: 3; and, Taylor: 14. Our current new case growth rate is: 1.018. This means our total case count is projected to double every 38.76 days. The most new cases we ever added in a single day was on 11/19/2020 when we added 273 cases. Today’s new cases include:

Adair: A 31-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Adair: A 34-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Adair: A 42-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Adair: A 39-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Adair: A 27-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 70-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 78-year-old male who is hospitalized, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 19-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 72-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 66-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 67-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 28-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 54-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 29-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Casey: A 76-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Cumberland: A 11-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Cumberland: A 64-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Cumberland: A 53-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Green: A 69-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Green: A 45-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
Green: A 24-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 35-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 38-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 22m -year-old male who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
McCreary: A 41-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 10-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 75-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 32-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 73-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 64-year-old male who is hospitalized, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 38-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 6-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
McCreary: A 33-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 85-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 55-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 58-year-old male who is hospitalized, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 61-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
McCreary: A 86-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 13-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
McCreary: A 16-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
Pulaski: A 27-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 42-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 20-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 42-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 67-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 52-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 51-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
Pulaski: A 58-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 58-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 81-year-old male who is hospitalized, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 75-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 25-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 15-year-old female who is released, asymptomatic;
Pulaski: A 41-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 14-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 28-year-old male who is released, unknown;
Pulaski: A 55-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 67-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 17-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 68-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 32-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 44-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 22-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 43-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 28-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 2-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 23-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 60-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 29-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 17-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 52-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 8-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 23-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 17-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 42-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 27-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 69-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 74-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 47-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 52-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 56-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 34-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 19-year-old male who is released, unknown;
Pulaski: A 38-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 60-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 34-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 25-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 32-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 55-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 21-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Pulaski: A 60-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Russell: A 17-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Russell: A 23-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Russell: A 35-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 60-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 43-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
Taylor: A 27-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 33-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 92-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
Taylor: A 11-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 18-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 69-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 44-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 17-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 28-year-old female who is self-isolated, asymptomatic;
Taylor: A 34-year-old female who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;
Taylor: A 37-year-old female who is self-isolated, unknown;
Taylor: A 33-year-old male who is self-isolated, still symptomatic;

The death we announce today is an 81-year-old female from Wayne who had been released from public health monitoring (meaning she was no longer contagious), but later succumbed to lasting complications from the disease. Keep in mind that locally, approximately 1 in every 67 people who contract COVID-19 will die from it.

A close look at the data will appear that the McCreary numbers are off by 1 today. That is because we removed one duplicate entry from McCreary. This also caused our total case count increase to be one less than our new case count increase for the day.

We added 108 new cases today compared with 98 new cases last Sunday. However, we have 26 fewer active cases (997 vs 1,023). Our hospitalized cases remain at a record-high level.

We often get asked questions about how many of our cases have underlying health conditions or how many of our COVID-19 related deaths were due to COVID-19 only. These types of questions demonstrate a narrow and lacking understanding of morbidity and mortality. It should be noted that almost everyone in Kentucky, even those who aren’t presently “sick” form anything, has “underlying health conditions” such as diabetes, high-blood pressure, heart disease, etcetera. Also, no matter what someone dies from, COVID-19 or otherwise, there are almost always co-morbidities (other contributing factors) such as, again, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, etcetera). When a COVID-19 death is announced by us, we have every reason to believe that COVID-19 was either the primary cause of death or was a major contributor thereof.

People also often claim that in our total case count that we count people multiple times; that we count them for every positive test they may have had. This is false. For every case we report, we have an associated name, birthdate, and address; and, that person is only listed once regardless of how many tests they may have had. If we discover we have reported a duplicate, such as the one referenced above, we adjust our numbers and report that publicly.

The one exception to this is when an individual contracts COVID-19 for a second time. Basically, this means they have had a lab confirmed COVID-19 illness, and then had a second lab-confirmed COVID-19 illness over 90 days later. Though rare, this is possible. In fact, 10 or our 8,265 cases, or .0012%, or about 12 in 10,000, to have had a repeat infections – have contracted COVID-19 twice. This could be due to waning post-exposure immunity, having contracted a slightly different strain of the COVID-19 virus, or due to having had a false-positive lab result. Again, this is very, very rare.

The practices of public health, epidemiology, the monitoring of communicable diseases, and the study of morbidity and mortality are sciences supported by scholarship and years of research. These are specialized fields practiced by providers aided by years of advanced education and experience. Please do not allow “social media conspiracy theories”, pseudo-sciences, or public opinion to cause you to discount the advice of public health officials. COVID-19 is serious (in our area, 1 in 67 people who contract it die from it, and 1 in 16 end up hospitalized). For 2020, it is now one of the leading causes of death in our nation.

Mother Nature has presented us with a challenge that is disruptive to our normal lives, we don’t like being inconvenienced by this disease, and leadership at the world, federal, state, and local levels have “politicized” it. But, know this, COVID-19 does not care about your political affiliation, your race, your sex, or your religion; nor does it care about county or state borders. When it attacks in clusters, it does not distinguish between churches or bars; between public or private schools; or, between government or private businesses. Let your guard down, and you could become 1 of the 16 who contract it who become hospitalized, or, more frightening, 1 of the 67 who will die.

There is hope. It is within your control to reduce your risk, and the risks of those around you. Please, let’s all do our part in slowing the spread of COVID-19 by wearing our face coverings, avoiding crowds (especially in confined spaces), social distancing when around others, increasing our hand hygiene, increasing our general sanitation, and by avoiding the touching of our faces.

The Lake Cumberland area has experienced 8,265 cumulative confirmed cases and there have been 178,804 confirmed COVID-19 cases across all 120 Kentucky Counties as of today (this includes 176,925 statewide plus 1,879 recently reported cases in Lake Cumberland not in the Governor’s/Department for Public Health’s daily report). Regardless of the confirmed case count for any Lake Cumberland County, we believe COVID-19 to be widespread. The LCDHD is working tirelessly, including nights and weekends, to identify and contact all those with whom any positive case may have come into close contact, and to follow-up daily with positive cases. Additionally, we are striving diligently to follow-up on business-related complaints regarding noncompliance with the Governor’s Executive Orders. We are also working with any community partner that requests assistance for prevention or post-exposure planning/response.